# Table 1: Pension Endogeneity — Does Aging Drive Fiscal Expansion?

PanelGLS with AR(1). Sample: sovereign-rated issuers, 1990-2024.
Controls: log GDP/pc, GDP growth, inflation.

| Dependent Variable | OADR coef | SE | p-value | N | R² |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Pension spending | 50.718 | 6.760 | 0.0000*** | 809 | -0.192 |
| Health expenditure | 16.037 | 1.912 | 0.0000*** | 668 | 0.408 |
| Govt expenditure | 50.820 | 11.328 | 0.0000*** | 923 | -0.123 |
| Govt revenue | 8.441 | 11.257 | 0.4536 | 923 | 0.034 |
| Exp-Rev gap | 20.573 | 4.330 | 0.0000*** | 923 | 0.255 |
| Debt/GDP | 290.783 | 27.176 | 0.0000*** | 909 | -0.048 |
